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How to Think about Coronavirus

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America just held a nationwide IQ test. Did you notice it?

Everyone who has said about coronavirus that, “It’s just the flu,” failed the IQ test. As did those who claim discussing coronavirus is “spreading panic.”

They are engaging in what Scott Adams calls Loserthink. Read his book here.

Low probability of certain death = “Freakout” is Rational.

You will almost certainly not die from the coronavirus.

If the coronavirus contagion and death rates are accurate, between one and three million Americans could die.

When you have a low risk of a pandemic with a death count exceeding the total number of Americans who died in World War II, you take precautions.

Reasonable minds can differ as to what those precautions are.

But if you’re not thinking about coronavirus in terms of fat tail risk, you’re not even allowed to be part of the conversation.

  • “Tail risk is the additional risk of an asset or portfolio of assets moving more than 3 standard deviations from its current price, above the risk of a normal distribution. … Tail risk is sometimes defined less strictly, as merely the risk (or probability) of rare events.”

You will almost certainly not die from the coronavirus. Do you buy some extra food / water?

Your car will almost certainly not be stolen. Do you lock it?

Your house will almost certainly never burn down in a fire. Do you have fire insurance?

Why it’s better to panic early: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Yaneer Bar-Yam

“But 60,000 people die from the flu each year!”

Yes, and this is terrible.

I had no idea that seasonal flu deaths were that high. Did you? (Don’t lie. I bet you didn’t.)

Rather than use, “but 60,000 die from the flu,” as some sort of repudiation of coronavirus risk, isn’t the answer that we should care more about the flu.

You’re not checkmating anyone with that stat. You sound like an idiot. Or someone who is glib about human death.

If we as a society can prevent more people from dying of the flu, let’s have that conversation.

Math is hard.

Engineer Liz Specht did what engineers do – MATH!

Our hospitals aren’t prepared to handle the number of patients who catch coronavirus.

Read Specht’s entire thread on Twitter.

Here are some highlights:

  • The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n
  • By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n
  • Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works. 22/n

Ms. Specht assumes a closed system, so her numbers are likely on the high side.

But she is also creating a starting point of how to think about the coronavirus.

“It’s just the flu, bro,” is f-cking moronic. Shut the f-ck up. You don’t know anything.

Any rational discussion of coronavirus looks at the worst-case numbers / secondary effects of millions of sick Americans.

And then you start using an OODA loop / find ways to open the system.

1. Observation. How many cases of coronavirus are there? Where are these cases originating? Who Is getting sick? How many are dying?

2. Orientation. Are the number of cases of coronavirus increasing? Then what? Are they increasing? Now what?

3. Decision making. Make a rational decision based on what you’re observation and how you’re orientating yourself based on these observations.

4. Action. This is where leadership matters.

Solutions to a Coronavirus Crisis.

We need “right to try” laws.

We need virtual doctor visits.

We need some form of “doctors lite.”

You don’t need an MD and $500,000 in medical school debt along with 4 years of a residency to treat patients with coronavirus.

We need vision and leadership.

https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1236373223828148224

If your contribution to the coronavirus discussion is some form of “It’s only flu,” please go away. You’re not helping.

Let the adults figure out what to do next.

And please don’t rely on media outlets to understand the math.

 

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Culture

Will Mushrooms Save Humanity?

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Are “magic mushrooms” for filthy hippies who have checked out of life, or is there more to the story? Fantastic Fungi suggests the answer is yes in a wide-ranging documentary on psilocybin.

Loaded with mainstream, normie voices like Michael Pollan (as opposed to say Eckhart Tolle), Fantastic Fungi succeeds as a documentary for skeptics.

All plant medicine faces intense discrimination and bias, with claims ranging that medicine like psilocybin and ayahuasca are “demonic” or will “send you on a bad trip,” despite a lack of scientific evidence that supervised, responsible use of plant medicine has few downsides and updates that include

  • advanced creativity
  • freedom from alcoholism and opioid addiction
  • higher ability to empathize with others and love more

Microdosing psilocybin has been used by names you’d recognize yet never expect, and indeed many people are shocked to learn that I have a decade-long experience with 5-MeO-DMT, ayahuasca, and psilocybin.

The stereotype of course is that people use plant medicine to check out of reality, when in fact the proper use of psilocybin enhances your ability to experience reality.

People wrongly believe that using plant medicine puts your physical body on a spiritual journey, inverting the truth, which is that your spiritual body in on a journey in your physical one.

We are spiritual beings having a human experience.” – Pierre Teilhard de Chardin

Fantastic Fungi will be enjoyable watch whether you are experienced in these matters or remain a skeptic. To those who are skeptical, grab a cup of coffee or beer (totally not drugs unlike the stuff other people use) and learn about the magic underneath your feet and within your heart.

You can watch Fantastic Fungi here on iTunes.

 

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Bill Clinton on Jeffrey Epstein Island, Victim Claims

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Former President Bill Clinton was seen with two women on Jeffrey Epstein’s “pedophile island,” according to Virgina Roberts.

In newly unsealed documents, Virgina Roberts directly implicated Clinton in an April, 2011 interview. (You can read her full interview here at this link.)

The relevant except says:

When you say you you asked him why is Bill Clinton here, where was here?

Roberts: On the island.

JS: When you were present with Jeffrey Epstein and Bill Clinton on the island, who else was there?

Roberts: Ghislaine, Emmy, and there was two young girls that I could identify. I never really knew them well anyways. It was just 2 girls from New York.

JS: And were all of you staying at Jeffrey’s house on the island including Bill Clinton?

Roberts: That’s correct.

He had about 4 or 5 different villas on his island separate from the main house, and we all stayed in the villas.

JS: Were sexual orgies a regular occurrences at the island of Jeffrey’s house? Roberts: Yes.

 

 

Bill Clinton is directly implicated by an eyewitness in the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking ring.

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Culture

Jim Jordan Sells Out Conservatives to Big Tech (Read the Confidential Memo in Full)

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Labelled “Confidential,” the Jim Jordan Memo is something you’re not supposed to see.

Cernovich Media has obtained this Memo and is posted it in full.

Read the Jim Jordan Antitrust Memo here:

Highlights of Jim Jordan’s Antitrust Memo

  • The Memo gives Republican talking points needed to defend Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook.
  • The Jim Jordan Memo is clear. Zero antitrust action against Apple, Google, or Amazon will be supported by the GOP, and the memo is loaded with talking points defending Big Tech’s monopoly power.
  • “Even if this hearing suggests that Google, Amazon, Apple, or Facebook have acted unlawfully, that would not necessarily mean underlying antitrust law needs an overhaul.”

Watch my Video Report of the Jim Jordan Antitrust Memo here:

 

 

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Arizona State University March 4th

Mike Cernovich will be speaking at Arizona State University on March 4, 2020. This event is open to the public....

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